根據上星期五公布的最新澳大利亞統計局(ABS)貸款指標數據,首次購房者正在對不斷上升的借款成本進行反擊,並在春季銷售季節結束時帶頭申請新貸款。
11月份,總共有2758億澳元的新住宅和投資物業貸款,較10月份微弱增長了1.0%,年度增長了13.1%。
具體而言,投資者的新貸款承諾價值高於自住房借款人。投資貸款增長了18%,達到了972億美元,而自住房新貸款承諾僅同比增長了10.6%,達到了1786億澳元。
然而,引人注目的是首次購房者的活動,新貸款承諾的價值增長了25.8%,使新貸款的價值達到了525億澳元。
Canstar的貸款專家Steve Mickenbecker表示11月份顯示了新貸款的微弱增長,當月新貸款的價值上升了1%,年度增長了13%。投資者當月增長了1.9%,相比之下,自住房貸款只增長了0.7%。可以說投資者回來了,新貸款同比增長了18%,表明他們對未來幾年的房地產價格有健康的預期。領先的是首次購房者,新貸款承諾當月增長了2.8%,年度增長了25.8%。從購房者的數量來看,首次購房者的參與占所有新貸款的37%。
近年來,首次購房者不得不經受利率上漲對借款能力的影響。Canstar的分析顯示,對於平均收入來說,獨自借款人的借款能力自2022年4月以來已減少了13.7萬澳元,同樣,雙收入夫妻的預算已減少了33.1萬澳元。
Impact of Rate Rises on Borrowing Power | ||||
Annual Expenses | Borrowing Power | Difference in Borrowing Power | ||
Apr-22 (2.98%, $90,917 gross income) | Now (7.23%, $95,581 gross income) | |||
Single – income x1 | $21,840 | $485,000 | $348,000 | -$137,000 |
Couple – income x2 | $31,670 | $1,139,000 | $808,000 | -$331,000 |
source: www.canstar.com.au – 12/01/2023. Interest rate based on the average owner occupier home loan rate at Apr-22 on Canstar’s database, available for a $500k, P&I, 80%LVR loan; excluding introductory and other special condition loans. Today’s interest rate based on Apr-22 rate with cash rate increases since then applied. Gross income per ABS Average Weekly Earnings (Nov-21, May-23). Borrowing power calculations assume a loan term of 30 years, annual expenses of $21,840 for a single and $31,670 for a couple (based on the Household Expenditure Measure (HEM) for Australians earning $80,000 to $90,000 per year), 80% of income available to service the loan, and a 3% interest rate buffer. Tax calculations based on the 2023-24 Financial Year, excluding Medicare Levy. |
購買第一套房,特別是在悉尼,仍然是一項艱巨的挑戰,但越來越多的購房者正在突破底線。10,395名首次購房者的參與是自2022年5月以來最高的,當時澳大利亞儲備銀行開始加息,並且高於長期平均水平,得益於2009年和2021年的高政府激勵措施。
對更高還款產生疲軟態度的現有借款人
儘管墨爾本杯每日加息率增加,但11月份尋求與新的貸款方達成更好交易的借款人較少。在春季的最後一個月,僅有174.9億澳元的貸款被轉移到新的貸款人,遠低於2023年7月高峰時的215億澳元。
Canstar的分析顯示,自2022年4月以來現金利率上漲了4.25個百分點,對30年期60萬澳元貸款的還款額增加了約1562澳元,或對100萬澳元貸款增加了2603澳元。
Mickenbecker表示通過再融資,僅有1750億澳元的貸款,澳大利亞借款人遠遠落後於2023年7月移動的2150億澳元。借款人可能已經決定他們可以接受更高的還款額,但支付過多的房屋貸款是沒有理由的,因為Canstar上的最佳利率是5.69%,比6.90%的平均浮動利率低了1.21個百分點。進行切換可能會使借款人在30年內的60萬澳元貸款上每月節省473澳元,因此不應有任何疲累態度。
2023年11月ABS貸款指標數據摘要:要比較來自80多家貸款機構的房屋貸款,請訪問 www.canstar.com.au
ABS Lending Indicators | |||||||
Nov-22 | Oct-23 | Nov-23 | Difference | % Change | |||
MoM | YoY | MoM | YoY | ||||
Value of new housing commitments | |||||||
Total Housing | $24.38 billion | $27.32 billion | $27.58 billion | $262.8 million | $3.20 billion | 1.0% | 13.1% |
Owner Occupied | $16.14 billion | $17.78 billion | $17.86 billion | $82.6 million | $1.72 billion | 0.5% | 10.6% |
Investment | $8.23 billion | $9.54 billion | $9.72 billion | $180.2 million | $1.48 billion | 1.9% | 18.0% |
Value and number of new lending for owner occupier first home buyers | |||||||
Value | $4.17 billion | $5.11 billion | $5.25 billion | $142.2 million | $1.08 billion | 2.8% | 25.8% |
Number | 8,642 | 10,041 | 10,395 | 354 | 1,753 | 3.5% | 20.3% |
Value of refinancing to a new lender | |||||||
Total | $19.85 billion | $17.37 billion | $17.49 billion | $121.2 million | -$2.36 billion | 0.7% | -11.9% |
Owner Occupied | $13.69 billion | $11.40 billion | $11.57 billion | $165.8 million | -$2.13 billion | 1.5% | -15.5% |
Investment | $6.16 billion | $5.97 billion | $5.92 billion | -$44.6 million | -$238.1 million | -0.7% | -3.9% |
Source: www.canstar.com.au. Based on ABS Lending Indicators, seasonally adjusted figures unless otherwise indicated. |